Does Diplomacy Still Work? Ask China or Russia
These are the most consequential diplomatic times since the 1950s. For the first time since those post-World War II days, there is a realignment of countries. Old allies are falling away, and new alliances and Global Organizations are emerging. The Atlantic Powers, those countries dominated by the United States and the European Union, can no longer set the world’s agenda.
For 80 years, Organizations such as the United Nations and NATO have dominated global politics. With its vast wealth and far-flung military presence, the United States has been the world’s leader in trade and diplomacy. Without the US “stamp of approval,” global initiatives simply didn’t move forward. For years, the United States has provided the lion’s share of the United Nations’ Budget. Currently, the US contributes roughly one-quarter of the UN’s finances, more than any other country by far.
However, as my boss once told me, that was last quarter; what have you done lately? And here, the US record isn’t so rosy. Almost all the alliances and International Organizations that placed America in the preeminent position were formed 50 years or more ago. Both NATO and the United Nations, as we noted, were established in the 1940s, with all of the subsequent organizations, like UNESCO (1945), World Health Organization (1948), Bank for International Settlements (1929), SWIFT Banking System (1973), etc. are all more than half a century old.
So, the question remains: What has the United States done lately to promote, innovate, and establish new diplomatic ties among its allies and potential allies? In short, what is the US doing to bring the world together?
Fortunately, it is relatively easy to track how a country is doing diplomatically by watching that pinnacle of statecraft, the State Dinner. A State Dinner is a formal affair where one head of state hosts another to a full-course meal complete with entertainment and all the trimmings. What’s particularly interesting is that you’re likely to read about the latest State Dinner in the Entertainment Section, where the discussion revolves around the appetizers, wines served, and ladies’ attire.
But there is so much more to these affairs. In the United States, the State Department attends to all the arrangements. Careful negotiations begin, where the Head of a Country is first invited to attend, then the guest’s preferred dishes are discussed, along with suggested entertainment and so on.
All that for just the meal. The real purpose is to cement relations between the two countries, settle a dispute, or suggest some new diplomatic agreement. State Dinners are incredibly complex to set up, and therefore, they don’t occur very often. I consider them the “home run” of diplomacy.
By watching which Country is the host and which Country is invited, you can learn a lot about the diplomatic efforts of both countries. Host countries are trying to “woo,” that is, win the guest’s approval. The guest may be just as anxious to cement relations between the two. With the world in flux, as it is now, this is a prime time to “State Dinner” watch.
State Dinners are especially noteworthy when one Country invites another country that is not an ally. These are even rarer. But when they result in a substantial agreement, that’s the best of all: a diplomatic Grand Slam Home Run.
In the recent history of the United States, I can only think of one Grand Slam Home Run. It was December 1987, a very unsettled time for the United States as the Stock Market had endured a significant crash just two months before. Fortunately, the State Department under President Ronald Reagan retained its focus and followed through on its negotiations for the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Later, at the State Dinner in his honor, Mikhail Gorbachev was able to toast that Agreement. It did a lot to provide stability to a badly shaken country.
A State Dinner and a major treaty combined to create a true Grand Slam for the USSR and the US.
Recently, we’ve seen another Grand Slam, this time between the Russian Federation (successor to the USSR) and China. Although it took a year to develop, this is equally as impactful as the INF Treaty of 37 years earlier.
It all began in March 2023 when Vladimir Putin invited Xi Jinping to an opulent State Dinner at the Kremlin. The event included a private dinner between Xi and Putin, side meetings between diplomats, and a formal State Dinner. The two leaders announced a new era of “no-limits” friendship between the two countries. This was a historic first step in what was going to be an ongoing cooperation between the two former enemies. Remember, China and Russia had fought over their thousand-mile border for years in the 1960s. Now, declaring to the world that they were “friends” was a huge deal.
However, the two leaders were just beginning. During the next year, they would sign enhanced economic agreements and a deal to jointly develop nuclear reactors. Most recently, Xi would return the favor by inviting Putin to a State Visit (one step down from a State Dinner).
The Visit took place on May 16, 2024, and produced one of the most remarkable two-country agreements ever.
The Agreement has the rather cumbersome title of:
Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the 75th Anniversary of Building the Two Countries.
So immediately, you’ll notice that this is a “Statement,” not a treaty or other formal Agreement. That’s fitting for this new level of cooperation between the two countries.
The reference, in the Agreement, to 75 years acknowledging the hardships both countries faced during those turbulent times following World War II: Russia to rebuild a war-torn country and China to survive Mao’s long march.
The Joint Statement goes on to acknowledge that the two countries are moving beyond the rigid opposition of the old Cold War:
“The two sides pointed out that the current Sino-Russian relationship transcends the military and political alliance model during the Cold War and is non-aligned, non-confrontational, and non-targeted.”
https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2024/05-16/10217948.shtml
(I’m using the China News Chinese/English translation.)
This is the effort by China and Russia to move away from the ridged world of the Cold War. Remember, China is the leading manufacturing country in the world and a major supplier to the United States; this is its effort to maintain those multilateral commercial relationships.
The Joint Statement describes a “special strategic relationship” between the two countries. It is not quite a joint defense pack, but the statement nonetheless leaves little doubt that each Country would come to the other’s defense should either be attacked.
The two sides reiterated that China and Russia always regard each other as:
“priority partners, always insist on mutual respect, treat each other equally, and win-win cooperation. … and become the largest neighbors of the world today.”
Model of relationship.
“The two sides are willing to deepen comprehensive strategic cooperation, firmly support each other on sovereignty, territorial integrity, security, and development issues, and play their respective advantages reasonably and effectively, focusing on safeguarding national security and stability and promoting development and revitalization.”
https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2024/05-16/10217948.shtml
“Comprehensive strategic cooperation…sovereignty, territorial integrity, security…”
While that may not be a mutual defense pack, it comes very close. We’d be naive not to recognize this as a direct response to the Biden Administration’s actions in Ukraine and Taiwan. The US is the only Country that is threatening the “sovereignty” and or “territorial integrity” of either China or Russia.
Any review of the Joint Statement will reveal both countries’ desire to maintain their independence and yet provide military or economic support should the need arise. It is indeed a new model relationship for nations.
The China-Russia Joint Statement clearly indicates that diplomacy still works. When two significant countries, like Russia and China, reach an agreement like this, it can change the world.
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