Election 2024: The Four Wild Cards, Part 1
It’s election time in the United States. You’ve, no doubt, already heard or seen the election ads on television, radio, and throughout the internet.
President Joe Biden announced that he would run for reelection on April 25, 2023. At that point, he also announced that Julie Chavez Rodriguez, granddaughter of labor organizer Cesar Chavez, would be his Campaign Manager. This will be Ms. Rodriguez’s second national campaign effort. Her first was the unsuccessful Presidential Campaign of Kamala Harris in 2019.
Biden’s campaign slogan is “Finish the Job.” (Together, we can “ Finish the Job” for the American people.) He has selected, once again. Kamala Harris will serve as his vice president should he be reelected. It will be an up-hill struggle for the Incumbent President; the day he announced, the Public Broadcast System (PBS) ran the results of their most recent opinion poll indicating that Biden’s support was a mere 41%.
Running against President Biden is former President Donald Trump. It’s one of those rare times in American history when two Presidents, the current President and former President, are running against each other. President Trump will continue to utilize his earlier campaign slogan: “MAGA,” an acronym for “Make America Great Again.” His campaign slogan is “I’ll never stop fighting for you.” The Trump campaign spokesman is Steven Cheung, who served both in Trump’s 2016 campaign and the Trump administration.
The latest Ipsos Opinion Poll found that most Americans are unhappy with their choices for President, although less so for Trump. In the poll taken on January 24, Trump leads Biden by 5%, 39% to 34%, although we can expect those numbers to change many times between now and the General Election.
The Four Wildcards
Lending a degree of uncertainty is the number of geopolitical events occurring, any of which could turn this election on its head. The four events I’m referring to are the Conflict in Gaza, the Ukraine War, the actions of the Houthi Rebels in the Red Sea, and the reactions of the Federal Reserve.
Let’s explore each of those.
The Gaza Conflict
On October 7, 2023, Hamas Rebels entered a concert in Israel and killed approximately 1,400 attendees. The State of Israel was enraged. President Benjamin Netanyahu immediately began preparations for retaliation, assembling a War Cabinet; Israel began a massive military response aimed at destroying Hamas. As the conflict commenced, world opinion was generally behind Israel. The raid by Hamas was generally considered an act of terrorism, and most thought that Israel had every right to punish the perpetrators.
However, as the IDF (The Israeli Defense Force) commenced its actions, it became increasingly apparent that they had no regard for civilians who might be caught in their fire. To date, the number of Palestinians killed is approaching 28,000, a number twenty times larger than those killed by Hamas. What’s more, more than half of those killed include women and children. In addition to taking human lives, the IDF has also campaigned to destroy homes, apartments, stores, and other buildings in Palestinian towns. As the IDF campaign progressed, all three of the Palestinian colleges and universities have been razed, hospitals destroyed, and infrastructure torn apart.
These are not my conclusions. These are the conclusions of the International Court of Justice, the highest of all international courts under the jurisdiction of the United Nations. Last week, the ICJ issued its preliminary judgment on the issue of Genocide. The country of South Africa brought charges against Israel, and the behavior of the IDF qualified as wanton Genocide. Israel had crossed the line of pursuing Hamas terrorists and was now pursuing a policy that would result in the killing and dislocation of the entire Palestinian people. These were explosive accusations. If proven, they would make Israel an outlaw state and at risk of becoming an international pariah.
From the River to the Sea
In the following clip, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that his long-standing policy is to extend Israel’s sovereignty “From the River to the Sea.” This would eliminate the Palestinian State.
Before the Court last week was the decision of whether there was sufficient evidence of Genocide to take further action. The Court ruled that Israel’s actions warranted further investigation. The ICC cautioned Israel not to threaten the “Group” (i.e., the Palestinians) with death or harm.
Eventually, this matter will come before the General Assembly of the United Nations. The Court has made the critical decision that South Africa has presented sufficient evidence to warrant further litigation against Israel. The case of Genocide against Israel will proceed.
The International Court of Justice Ruling
In the following clip, Judge Joan Donahue of the United States reads a portion of the ICJ’s ruling. In it, she admonishes Israel that it must not act in any fashion that would be reminiscent of Genocide, although the Court stopped short of imposing an immediate Cease Fire.
Political Risk
The risks here for President Biden’s reelection campaign are enormous. In an extended and far-ranging trial of Israel at the ICJ, the United States could be brought into the litigation as the chief accomplice. After all, it has been the Biden Administration that has been steadfast in supplying Israel with all the arms and support needed to pursue the battle against Hamas. If it turns out that Israel did indeed pursue Genocide, then it is also possible that America could find itself as a co-defendant in the same trial. There are many hypotheticals here, but any step down this road would likely be considered a blot on this Administration’s record.
Part II of this series will explore the Ukraine War and its ramifications on the 2024 Election.
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