Germany’s Renewable Energy Experiment: A Bold Move Or Risky Bet?
“Energiewende” is the German National Renewable Energy Plan adopted in 2009. It has been the guiding legislation for the German transition toward a more environmentally responsible energy program. Last Saturday’s action in closing the final three Nuclear Power Plants in the country was one more step along this path.
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On Saturday, Germany shut down its three remaining Nuclear Power Stations. This fulfilled a campaign promise of Chancellor Olaf Scholz to do away with a source of energy the Germans have viewed as highly dangerous, especially in light of the Nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011.
Phasing out Nuclear power at the beginning of Spring would be the best time of the year. Germany is now emerging from winter, traditionally the time of the country’s highest energy consumption, and entering what is usually a time of sunshine and Spring breezes, which will aid wind and solar energy production.
Germany thereby launches the most significant energy “experiment” globally. It is the largest bet on renewable energy sources currently underway. But it is also merely a continuation of a trend that German began nearly 20 years ago. In the Industrial Era of the 19th and 20th Centuries, there was a direct correlation between the amount of energy consumed by a nation and its economic Production.
As factories produced more and consumed more energy, the economy grew — a nearly one-to-one growth rate between energy consumption and industrial output. Economic historians often used energy consumption to determine whether a country was “first world” (an advanced country) or “second world (not advanced/industrial). Underdeveloped agrarian countries consumed very little energy.
Many assume that technology has changed all that, that a country can be nearly as productive in the Internet era as before in the Industrial Era. I’m not convinced. Something else may be occurring. Many advanced Western Countries have just shipped off industrial Production (and its energy consumption) to overseas manufacturing hubs, like China.
It is an interesting debate, and we will see which side is right over time. In the meantime, it’s apparent that German politicians proclaim that they can fill the gap left by shutting down Nuclear Power using renewables.
I bring your attention to the attached chart. It is remarkable in so many ways. As you will see, Energy Production in Germany peaked 16 years ago. Whether through strategic planning or happenstance, Germany began cutting back on their energy production in the early 2000s. They did the same thing with coal over the same time, reducing coal production by over 40%. This latest closing of the Nuclear Power Plants is just a continuation of the German policy of producing less energy.
But just because Germany produces less energy does not mean they consume less power. According to the latest report from the US Energy Information Agency, Germany is now importing three times as much total energy as it consumes. Like its industrial base, Germany has “off-shored” its energy base.
The most optimistic estimate (among several different estimates) is that renewables currently provide less than one-third of Germany’s annual energy production. Indeed, Germany has increased Production by renewables, chiefly wind, and solar, but so far, that increase has been marginal. Replacing the energy produced by the closed nuclear plants will require a 50% increase in renewable Production. Something that most analysts don’t believe is in the cards.
It is essential to point out that Germany has stepped up to the plate and provided us with the most significant “real world” experiment in modern energy production.
However, a couple of parameters need to be established to receive valid results.
First, when comparing any energy sources, we need to measure them versus total German energy consumption. I note in many of the reports that they measure renewable Production, for instance, against German Energy Production. But German Production continues to decline, so the contribution of any of its components grows automatically, relative to declining Production. It’s consumption that counts.
Second, German energy imports need to be carefully monitored. If, for instance, Germany were to replace the energy produced by Nuclear, with, for example, Norwegian gas, that should not be considered a success for German renewables.
Finally, a note for the energy researchers, several reports published are mathematically incorrect. The numbers, and therefore relative performance, do not add up. So beware.
Germany has begun a new approach to energy production and consumption today. It is a tremendous opportunity for the world to watch how this advanced economy adapts to these new energy constraints.
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