The Business Of Ukraine
The Russo-Ukraine War, which began in February 2014, took a dramatic and decisive turn precisely eight years later, on February 24, 2022, when Russian Forces crossed the border into neighboring Ukraine.
Since the beginning of this most recent phase of the conflict, the United States has been the principal supplier of Ukrainian military arms and systems. It has presented America with an unrivaled test and assessment of its Military Production Capacity. On paper, this was a mismatch of historical proportions. After all, the US is the world’s most significant arms producer. Of every dollar spent on global military production, the US produces 63 cents. That’s right, nearly two-thirds of all weapons produced worldwide are “made in the USA.”
On the other hand, Russia is far down the list of weapons producers, making only a one-ninth-dollar volume of ammunition, systems, and weapons compared to the US. It is inconceivable that Russia could hold a candle to the United States, a country whose annual defense budget approached ten times the Russians’ at the start of the conflict with Ukraine.
When asked by a reporter on 60 Minutes if the US could handle the war in Ukraine, along with the conflict in Gaza, President Joe Biden responded:
“We’re the United States of America, for God’s sake.” As if to underscore the seeming invincibility of American military might.
Unfortunately, as anyone who has followed the Russo-Ukraine Conflict closely will attest, the tide for the American-supported Ukrainians appears to be going out. By any objective measure, captured territory, number of casualties, and available supply of arms, the Russians, not the Americans/Ukrainians, are prevailing. Russia currently controls nearly a quarter of Ukrainian territory. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is estimated to be 43 years, indicating that Ukraine has been forced to throw a wide net in conscripting new recruits.
But most concerning for today’s discussion is that America is running out of supplies to provide Ukraine with ammunition and equipment to continue the conflict. It’s been known for weeks now that the supply of 115mm artillery shells, the workhorse of NATO-designed infantry warfare, is nearly exhausted.
How can this be?
How has the American Military Colossus run short of such a vital munition? This question should concern every American. At its heart is the basic issue: Is America prepared to stand up to Russia, or much less China, whose arm production is nearly double Russia’s? Is there a severe crack in America’s seeming invincibility?
Making matters worse, the 155mm artillery shortage is one of many areas we lack. Just last Friday, the US announced that it could not supply Ukraine with additional Patriot Anti-Aircraft systems. These systems are the pinnacle of US-produced anti-aircraft weapons and are vitally needed to combat Russian fighter jets, drones, and missiles.
Without significant anti-air weapons, the Russians have nearly secured complete air supremacy. It has been the key to Russia’s current strategy of destroying Ukraine’s electric grid. The primary reason that several Ukrainian cities and towns are going dark is the US’s inability to provide sufficient air defense.
Not only is America falling behind in supplying Ukraine with the quantity of weapons needed to oppose Russia, but many of the American weapons have not been up to standard.
The Moscow Arms Show
“There’s good news and bad news:
Our Abrams and Bradley’s are already in the center of Moscow
And the bad one?
At the “Trophy Show.”
— Alexander Ivanov, on X
Each year, Moscow puts on a significant arms show, like the Air, Navy, and Army shows held around the country. It’s an opportunity to show off the latest in military equipment and give citizens a look at the weapons and systems that stand by to protect them. This year, Russia presented several of its most advanced fighter and bomber jets and a mobile launch ICBM. All of them are pretty impressive.
A selection of arms captured in Ukraine was added to the list of Russian-produced equipment. As you can imagine, many of the tanks and vehicles on display were produced in the USA. The very latest in American military technology is now in the hands of our Proxy enemy — an unmistakable declaration of Russian victories on the battlefield.
The M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle
Of all the American “trophies” in Russian hands, the M1150 Assault Breacher Vehicle is perhaps the most exemplary. It is one of the most technologically advanced pieces of military equipment in the US Army and Marine arsenal. This 40-foot long, 72-ton behemoth uses the same chassis as the vaunted M1 Abrams Tank, the top-of-the-line in American armaments. Utilizing what is essentially a jet engine, the M1150 can generate a whopping 1,500 horsepower and reach a top speed of more than 40 mph. Each Assault Breacher costs $14 million to produce, not counting initial R&D.
Five months ago, Ukraine paraded one of its newly acquired M1150s through the streets of Kyiv. Within the last six weeks, two of the M1150s have been captured by the Russians during their surge through the region of Avdievka, a town that has seen some of the most fearsome recent battles. Although this unit was not captured in time to make the Moscow show, there is a video of a Russian soldier reviewing it.
The video is here on Sputnik Global, a Russian news site.
Please watch if you can. One principle I’ve learned in business is that your harshest critic can often provide the best evaluation of your product.
In brief, the soldier pointed out that the M1150 was too heavy to fight in Ukraine. While it may have worked wonderfully in the hard sands of the Middle East, it just sank into the black soils of Eastern Europe. Then, he pointed out how the Russian drone could take out the optical sensor, which blinded the unit. At that point, it was utterly vulnerable. He also called the M1150 a powder keg, with explosives stored high in the unit and exposed to arm’s fire.
Finally, the Russian Soldier concluded:
“At this point, this vehicle is only designed to break up protests against German farmers.”
Soldiers around the world have a sense of humor.
Developing The M1150
So, let’s put on our analyst caps and review the M1150. We’ll discover that the Russian soldiers’ opinions are not that removed from our Military establishment. Development of this vehicle began sometime in the 1990s. By 2001, the development program (Project Grizzly) was canceled. The Pentagon recognized that it could not support such a complicated, maintenance-heavy vehicle.
In hindsight, it’s easy to see how the M1150 was developed: take the engine and chassis from the Abrams, combine some custom armor plates, a custom plow, and some line charges to clear the mines, and just one 50-cal machine gun to save costs. Put it all together and “abracadabra,” a new mine-clearing vehicle. It was a process that undoubtedly cost a couple of billion dollars.
But, “ Hold on!” said the Pentagon. Like that Russian soldier, they realized it didn’t work in battle conditions (“too complicated and maintenance-heavy”). But by the time the Pentagon canceled the project, 239 M1150s had already been produced. The US Marines and Army took most of the vehicles, waiting for an opportunity to turn them over to some ally. That’s when Ukraine entered the picture.
Lessons for America’s Military Industry
Assuming that we’re even half right about the procurement and production of the M1150, the American production of armaments for Ukraine will become a “case study” for years to come. However, for that case study to have a real impact, this government must consider its critics, even the Russians. Unfortunately, I see no indication that this will occur.
The fact that the M1150 project proceeded entirely through the development phase without meeting sufficient opposition to stop production indicates that the R&D Process needs to be completely revamped. The President has turned the production of military equipment entirely on its head. Biden, Senator Lindsay Graham, and others repeatedly point to the number of new jobs as the principal reason we must continue sending billions to Ukraine.
Weapons To Win Wars, Or A Jobs Program?
Throughout the recent debate over sending $61 billion in aid to Ukraine, Biden and Congress argued that this money would increase employment for Americans and that the Defense Industry would use these funds to hire new workers. This is a simple misdirection and a loss of our chief objective, if we have one, in Ukraine.
No, Mr. President, the main goal of our Defense Contractors should NOT be to provide jobs. They should instead produce battle-ready arms and equipment that will give our troops or our allies the “winning edge.”
This President and most in Congress have turned our most essential military contracts from providing the margin of victory into some kind of social program. Note that the entire debate over the recent military aid package to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan centered on how many would be hired and in whose Congressional District. The debate was not on providing the support needed for Ukrainian battlefield victories.
This explains how a country like the USA can spend more on defense than the rest of the world combined and yet produce sub-par products. In Washington’s eyes, America’s Defense Industry has become merely a jobs program.
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