The Covid-19 World.

We have entered an all-new world. One that will certainly be unlike anything that any of us have seen before. Perhaps the closest thing to this new world, was back a hundred years ago, with the Spanish Flu of 1918.

Simply put we are losing a lot of people. Their lives are being cut short, not only by the Covid disease itself, but also by the lockdown, and by a not inconsequential number by the Covid Vaccines.

But no matter the reason, we’ll leave that debate for another day. The stark reality is that more people are being taken from us, than at any time in recent history. And should be expected to die to by any historic model.

Now mortality data has been coming slowly. And what we do have is often confusing. With distinctions made between various causes of death. While those distinctions can be questioned. What is beyond debate is the fact that more people are dying since the pandemic began, than before the disease struck.

And most worrisome of all, the rate of excess deaths is increasing. In 2020, the first year of Covid, there were 13% more deaths than expected. In 2021, that rate climbed to 16%, and this year, why this year, we are expected to have more than a quarter more excess deaths than expected.

That’s 13% to 16% to this year’s 25% excess deaths. The rate of excess deaths is expanding, and that’s the part that should concern us all. In other words, the Covid Pandemic is far from over. And in fact, the mortality rate is actually increasing.

So far one and a half million people will have had their lives shortened from the Pandemic. And while in the early stages most were the elderly, there has been a tremendous shift to younger and younger people now dying.

So what began as an “old folks” pandemic with close to 90% of all deaths being in those over 65. It is now shifting to a “younger peoples” mortality, with those under 65 now representing nearly 70%.

That’s a lot of numbers to throw at you. Sorry.

But I want to take this all out of the range of opinion and argument. And get back to some quantifiable facts.

And the facts are, that this country is being hit hard by a devastating Pandemic. And it’s about to really impact our lives and our economy, as the mortality rate continues to increase.

I’m sure that many of you have experienced the heartbreak loss of a loved one. And now collectively we’re about to feel those losses as a nation.

If I do some of the back of the envelop calculating, fewer than 1% of the working population has been lost so far.

But before you start celebrating, something to consider. No one knows when the excess deaths will begin to abate. {Just a note: stop looking at the infection rate. It’s a meaningless number.}

Focus on the mortality rate. And it tells us that deaths are increasing. And increasing dramatically.

Further, those who are dying are younger than when the disease first struck. So these new victims are much more likely to be in the workforce.

Assume, for the moment, that this trend in excess deaths continues for another 4 years. Not an unreasonable assumption given current trends. Then we could be looking at a death rate of 5% of the population or more.

Further assuming that half of those who die are employed, then it could mean that roughly 8 million fewer workers. A staggering number that would severely affect this economy.

I know these are hard numbers to grasp. The magnitude of which is overwhelming. Of course, my estimates may be off. Let’s hope so!

But the point is that we need to stop looking at the infection numbers and start looking at the excess death numbers.

The reality is that since Covid’s beginning in 2020, in just 3 projected years, the excess death rate looks to be doubling.

With no end in sight.